Have Liverpool really been lucky this season?

Rival fans claim at the Reds' seemingly inevitable Premier League title win is primarily based on good fortune, rather than being the best side.

Photo: IMAGO | Anfield Index

For many, the absences of Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak from wins over Manchester City and Newcastle United this week served to sum up the season for ‘lucky’ Liverpool.

With the Premier League title now looking inevitable, rival fans have taken to suggesting that any incoming success would primarily be down to good fortune, rather than skill.

In their view, injuries, the fixture list, the collapse of both City and Arsenal, and even refereeing decisions have converged to effectively hand the trophy to the Reds this term.

But is it really the case that Arne Slot’s side owe everything to luck?

Well, when it comes to Liverpool’s impressive fitness record, it only feels fair to mention the role of a new-look medical team installed ahead of this season.

And it is no coincidence that improvement has been found in this area when Slot was partly hired on the basis of player availability during his Feyenoord tenure being notably high.

Clearly, luck cannot be entirely discounted given that City and Arsenal have both performed well in that regard up until this year.

However, there was little sympathy for Liverpool when an unprecedented injury crisis ended their title charge last season, so why should they care when it happens elsewhere?

The fact is, it is the job of any club aiming to win trophies to ensure that they are prepared for any such stumble from their rivals.

And in mounting title challenges in five of the last seven seasons, the Reds have consistently put themselves in the position to capitalise on the unusual circumstances that have arisen this time around.

Crucially, any title win wouldn’t simply be a case of making the most of struggles elsewhere, either, with Slot’s team currently on track for 91 points - more than Arsenal have secured in either of the last two campaigns.

In fact, that total would have won the league in three of the last four seasons, and is more than the average winning total during the Premier League era, 87.8.

If the Gunners’ injury problems are still viewed as the decisive factor despite all that, then it is worth considering their position prior to those fitness issues setting in.

When Bukayo Saka tore his hamstring during a 5-1 win over Crystal Palace in the 17th game of the season, Mikel Arteta’s men were going at just 1.94 points per game (74 over an entire campaign).

Admittedly, there is no team in world football that could cope with losing their most important attacker and then his entire support cast in Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz.

But it is also far from certain that Arsenal would have claimed 2.71 points per game (102 over a season) across the remaining 21 games to get themselves to 90 even had these players remained fully fit.

Ultimately, if the critics won’t accept that Liverpool haven’t been lucky, then perhaps supporters should look to embrace this narrative.

This is a team who, in the last seven years alone, have twice missed out on titles by a single point despite accruing over 90, and have been forced to endure cursed Champions League finals decided by the dark arts of Sergio Ramos and an otherworldly Thibaut Courtois performance.

So, if this season really is down to luck, then you would be hard pushed to find a club who have done more to earn it than Liverpool.